Today the government has activated ‘Operation Early Dawn’, a set of emergency measures aimed to ease prison overcrowding. This is particularly pressing as rioters get sentenced. And yet, vice president of the Prison Governors' Association, Mark Icke, said the prison system has been "lurching from crisis to crisis for some time". So what could a longer term solution look like? We think involving the public might help to provide an answer.
Prison overcrowding is a complex and politically challenging test for the new government. With the current prison population at around 87,500, and operational capacity being 89,000, the problem needs urgent attention. But finding a solution that everyone supports is no easy task.
Polling suggests that people want harsher sentencing, but don't want to spend more money on prisons. So, how should a new government that is “restless for change”, and concerned about the public finances, tackle this issue?
The difference between public opinion (what polls capture) and public judgement (a considered view after understanding trade-offs) might explain the gap between sentencing policy and what people think.
Last year, the Justice Select Committee warned that public debate on sentencing is “stuck in a dysfunctional and reactive cycle,” noting that “the view among the public that the system is not severe enough represents a significant long-term public policy challenge that needs to be addressed.”
These recommendations came after we helped the committee bring the public into an inquiry into public attitudes on sentencing. Their report highlights the importance of public opinion in shaping sentencing policy and urges the Government to adopt a structured approach to public engagement. The committee recommends that “caution be exercised in relying exclusively on the findings of ad hoc polls as an evidence base for sentencing policy decisions,” and further suggests that “The MoJ should conduct regular, structured, deliberative engagement exercises with members of the public.”
The MoJ should conduct regular, structured, deliberative engagement exercises with members of the public.
Deliberative processes help bridge the gap between public opinion and public judgement. Raw public opinion can sometimes be contradictory, making it hard for elected representatives to know what people really want. However, public judgement involves learning about the issue, considering difficult trade-offs, thinking about systemic problems as a whole and finding shared solutions. This approach leads to recommendations that are likely to be more helpful to decision makers, and win broad public support when delivered.
From social care to housing, immigration to artificial intelligence, the new government faces big decisions that will impact millions of lives. We’ve been exploring the opportunities for greater public participation and deliberation in tackling the country’s biggest challenges and how the government can work with the public to find effective solutions. Read more on that here.
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